Osun Politics: A Theatre of Intrigues, Grits, and Calculated Gambits by Prof. Omotoso Ola Fajuyigbe

Osun state politics and her gubernatorial election have always been circumstantial, situational, and profoundly unique. This is a reality owing to a rare blend of historical, sociological, and structural elements that shape its political DNA. In Osun, everyone is a politician, from the man driving a hired purchased Korope through the heart of Osogbo, to the cobbler plying his trade on the roadside in Gbongan, the butcher in Iwo, and the clergyman in Ilesa, to the palm wine tapper in Ejigbo and hunter in Ile Ife, the women in all the neighbourhood and regional markets, no one is left out.

Politics in Osun is for both elite and grassroots bonded by blood, communal by conviction, and daily by discourse. That is why all the junctions and intersections in all the nooks and crannies are always geared with political stories.

Unlike other regions where private enterprises and companies absorb the workforce and the unemployed, Osun boasts fewer manufacturing or production companies. Instead, political parties have become the de facto employers which is the alternative civil service. An entire family, sometimes six or more, can be found attending ward or local government political meetings together, each playing their assigned role in the family’s political economy. Politics is not just a pursuit, it is an inheritance in Osun State.

Adding another layer to Osun political uniqueness is its off-cycle gubernatorial election. Falling outside the general electoral calendar, the Osun governorship poll is often a final dress rehearsal before national contests. This places it under national scrutiny, a battleground where narratives are tested, alliances proven, and dominance either confirmed or challenged.

Yet another peculiarity is geographical, Osun holds the distinction of having the highest number of ancient towns and cities in Nigeria, each with its proud, distinct history. Politically, the state is perfectly symmetrical, each of its three senatorial districts has ten local government areas. This rare evenness creates a fascinating, calculative political arithmetic that often makes or breaks ambitions.

From the December 14, 1991 showdown between the late Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke of the SDP and late Senator Bayo Salami of the NRC, to the volatile April 14, 2007 encounter between Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola (PDP) and Rauf Aregbesola (AC), Osun elections have always been soaked with dynamite like tension. Assassination attempts, dramatic configuration, mudslinging, defamation; these are the staple ingredients served by politicians to themselves, by extension, the electorates. The gubernatorial cycles of 2014 (Aregbesola and Omisore), 2018 (Adeoti, Adeleke, Oyetola and Omisore), and 2022 (Oyetola and Adeleke) contests read like dissertations in political science, layered with the dynamics of personalities, betrayals, strategic alliances, and real politicking, one could easily earn a doctorate degree from simply dissecting their buildup and aftermath.

Now, as the political clock ticks towards August 8, 2026, Osun’s air is thick with anticipation. A year to go, and already the sky is gloomy, yet paradoxically the sun is shining. All actors are in motion, playing their parts with uncanny precision as if guided by invisible producers and seasoned political directors.

Governor Ademola Adeleke, the incumbent is visibly jittery. Having ridden into office in 2022 on the strength of the people’s carried-forward 2018 sympathy votes and the tactical backing of The Osun Progressives, (TOP), a faction loyal to Rauf Aregbesola, Adeleke now finds himself caught between a disintegrating party and an unforgiving political environment. The PDP, the party on whose ticket he ascended is today a shadow of its former self. The umbrella is tattered, leaking and badly damaged. At the national level, it is hard to even identify who the authentic National Secretary is, a key figure constitutionally mandated to submit a governorship candidate name to INEC.

How then can Adeleke be faulted for scouting for a political blanket to shield his exposed nakedness?

Political pundits argue that the handwriting on the wall is unmistakable. The posture of the Presidency in Tinubu suggests a coordinated Yoruba agenda reminiscent of 2003, where regional loyalty may again be enforced with surgical diplomacy or ruthlessness, if the need arises. It is in this climate that Adeleke must navigate his next steps with both courage and tact.

Meanwhile, the Osun APC, now more introspective and sober from past defeats has undergone a quiet reconfiguration. With high net profile defectors from the PDP swelling its ranks, the party appears primed to reclaim Osun. Objectively, the sheer political weight of these entrants makes an APC victory seem inevitable. But politics isn’t arithmetic alone, it is chemistry biology combined, and internal friction remains a dangerous variable.

A united APC, one where all aspirants submit to the supremacy of a collective mandate especially if ratified by the President could present a formidable wall against Adeleke. However, factionalism, ambition, and ego could splinter the ranks. Only a signed, sealed, and truly honoured internal accord can safeguard their chances in 2026.

And then, there is the emerging third force, so noisy, ambitious, but lacking both structure and reach. Sourced from fragments of the two dominant parties, it postures as a disruptor but lacks the machinery for victory. Whether dressed in the white “Sanyan” esiki of Rauf Aregbesola or not, the ADC cannot birth Osun’s next governor. Its role, at best, is that of a spoiler pulling just enough weight to shift the balance in a tightly contested race.

If I were Ademola Adeleke, I would stay rooted in the PDP and fight with both passion and strategy. Political reinvention is best done within familiar territory. If I were a stakeholder in the APC, I would advance Basiru Ajibola or Gboyega Oyetola as the candidate. If I were Rauf Aregbesola, I would carefully explore two options: first, a tactical pact with the “enemy of my enemy”, in this case, Ademola Adeleke to destabilise the Tinubu-led structure in the Southwest. Second, I would consider quietly backing my protege, Bola Oyebamiji who can not be the APC candidate to wage a spoiler’s war that might tip the electoral scale in ADC’s favour.

Osun is heavily pregnant with possibilities. One misstep from any of the three major camps could lead to political miscarriage. The state stands at a crossroads yet again with history waiting to record its next political miracle or miscalculation.

Osun a dara!!!